Vision 2030 can succeed if predatory ways change

Commentary, The Standard
By Imre Loefler
08-11-2006

The authors of the plan promising Kenya the status of the Asian Tiger countries by 2030 has talent in gauging the soul of society.

For amid virtuous and heady ideas on justice and human rights, piety and charity and respectfulness, greed and gullibility are at the core. The Government realises that the people have little understanding of economics. So those who struggle to survive on $1 (Sh72) a day are vulnerable when promised that income will increase to $15 (Sh1,080) in 25 years. The State expects voters to recognise the skill and determination of the rulers and favour them with their vote.

The irony is that Kenya could become a tiger — it could have become one a long time ago, but did not. This is because post-colonial governments have fritted resources away and concentrated the wealth of the nation in the hands of the elite.

The reasons Kenyans are not richer are not difficult to find: Corruption, incompetence, outdated bureaucratic practices, lack of incentives to investors and environmental destruction, among many other ills.

Are the painters of the 2030 Vision going to part with this post-colonial heritage? Does the Government have a plan to change the pattern of income distribution? Comparing development statistics, it is obvious that countries that fail to control accumulation of wealth in the hands of a small group of plutocrats do not "develop".

The promised 10 per cent annual economic growth would not help Kenyans if the boom ended up in the hands of the ruling class. The "dual development" that has characterised the post-colonial era would continue. Skyscrapers, elevated motorways, underground transport, fantastic airports, five-star hotels, casinos, holiday resorts, first-class schools and medical care can co-exist side by side with poverty, slums, famine, disease, criminality and insecurity.

Countries where such conditions persist do not "develop": Development indices such as good nutrition, shelter, health and education remain low.

In Kenya, income distribution is extremely skewed. Half of the country’s wealth is owned by five per cent of the population, perhaps less. The Asian Tigers — Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong — which the painters of Vision 2030 refer to have less extreme income distribution and are less corrupt.

However, the phenomenon of dual development is not limited to poor countries. After the Industrial Revolution, the excesses of primitive capitalism threatened the development of industrial countries, hence the emergence of Karl Marx, Mussolini, Lenin, Franco, Hitler, Mao and dozens of dictators.

Eventually, the welfare State emerged, amalgamating the ideologies of liberal capitalism and social responsibility. Today, the most successful States pursue hybrid politics.

But dual development can mar emerging economies as well and it would be wrong for Kenya to imitate the South East Asian countries in every respect.

What is to be learned from them and South Africa, Mexico and Brazil is deregulation, especially in the provision of incentives and improvement of education. The painters of the pie in the sky did not disclose details on how they want Kenya to metamorphose from one of the poorest and most corrupt countries in the world with a primitive, slash and barn capitalist system and most extravagant plutocracy into a leaping tiger, an emerging economy.

We want to read detailed plans. Dreams and diversionary promises aside, there is no indication that the country is heading that way: Recent events in the energy, sugar and coffee sectors do not bode well and the Government’s appetite to meddle, prescribe and proscribe seems to be growing.

The propaganda of the 5.8 per cent economic growth (even if the figure is correct) does not take into account the population increase. The claim that it has come forth due to leaders’ tireless efforts is nauseous, considering that they have, since they gained power, increased their personal wealth by a much larger percentage, some perhaps by more than 100 per cent.

One good sign that there is a will to depart from the ways of the past would be to commission a forensic audit of the process of wealth accumulation among the 100 richest families. The report would make interesting reading.

In many countries, the historical source of wealth can be traced to looters, robber barons, pirates and all manner of illegal operators.

However, as a rule, the second and third generations of the predatory elite change their ways, not so much in the quest for respectability, but because they cannot, in the long run, secure their acquisitions without the protection of the law. If this would begin to happen, prospects for the great leap would be better. The control of income distribution lies at the heart of poverty alleviation.